No significant smoke is expected in the next 48 hours.
Air quality is good — ideal for outdoor activities.
1–3 low · 4–6 moderate · 7–10 high · 10+ very high · Forecast squares are Environment Canada's official AQHI period maximums.
Background bands (US EPA AQI, 24-h basis): ■ Good · ■ Moderate
| Model | Peak PM2.5 | Peak around |
|---|---|---|
| FireSmoke (UBC BlueSky) | 0 µg/m³ | Oct 15, 1:00AM |
| FireWork (ECCC) | 1 µg/m³ | Oct 15, 10:00AM |
Model values are for the nearest forecast grid cell to Yellowknife; FireSmoke, FireWork and HRRR are independent and often disagree — treat the highest available value as the cautious planning number.
Observations and NowCast are total PM2.5 — wildfire smoke plus every other source — as regulatory monitors measure it, and FireWork models that same total. FireSmoke and HRRR-Smoke estimate the wildfire contribution only, so they read lower than the monitors whenever other sources matter. The optional map plume surfaces are likewise fires-only.
Little smoke at the surface or overhead.
● At the ground · ● Overhead (relative)
Overhead smoke dims the sun but is not what you breathe. The dashed line is the column total scaled to a typical mixed plume, so it is comparable in shape, not in units · Data: ECCC FireWork
Within 150 km, agencies report 1 Out of control.
No being held fires are reported within 150 km.
No under control fires are reported within 150 km.
Proximity and wind direction do not prove that a fire caused smoke at this location. Sources: BC Wildfire Service in British Columbia; Natural Resources Canada CWFIS elsewhere.
29-day record · 4 nearby monitors
| Model | Typical error | Tendency |
|---|---|---|
| FireWork | 3.3 µg/m³ | reads low 3.0 |
| FireSmoke | 3.8 µg/m³ | reads low 3.8 |
Mean absolute error and average tendency in µg/m³, from forecasts verified 0–6 hours ahead at monitors within 50 km. A short-range record, not a measure of how far ahead a model stays reliable. FireSmoke and HRRR model wildfire smoke only, so they read below the monitors whenever other sources of PM2.5 matter.
See the Northwest Territories-wide forecast — every monitor, ranked →