Vernon, British Columbia — Wildfire Smoke Forecast
Live PM2.5, AQHI and 48-hour smoke-model outlook · updated Oct 14, 8:25PM PDT
Current air quality and forecast
Now · observedGood
7 µg/m³ NowCast · latest 9 µg/m³ at Vernon Science Centre
Next 48 hoursUnhealthy for Sensitive Groups
0–54 µg/m³ · 3 models
Forecast peak54 µg/m³Oct 16, 4:00AM · FireSmoke
Smoke is expected to arrive around Oct 16, 2:00AM and clear by about Oct 16, 8:00AM.
Air quality is good — ideal for outdoor activities.
AQHI — now & forecast (Environment Canada)
2Now
2Wed night
2Thu
2Thu night
2Fri
1–3 low · 4–6 moderate · 7–10 high · 10+ very high · Forecast squares are Environment Canada's official AQHI period maximums.
Last 24 hours observed & next 48 hours forecast
Background bands (US EPA AQI, 24-h basis): ■ Good · ■ Moderate · ■ Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups · ■ Unhealthy
Forecast
Next 6 hours
0–8 µg/m³
Peak around Oct 14, 10:00PM
Next 12 hours
0–19 µg/m³
Peak around Oct 15, 5:00AM
Next 24 hours
0–19 µg/m³
Peak around Oct 15, 5:00AM
Next 48 hours
0–54 µg/m³
Peak around Oct 16, 4:00AM
Next 24 hours — model comparison3 models · 24-hour peak table
Model
Peak PM2.5
Peak around
FireSmoke (UBC BlueSky)
19 µg/m³
Oct 15, 5:00AM
FireWork (ECCC)
12 µg/m³
Oct 15, 9:00PM
HRRR-Smoke (NOAA, 3 km)
0 µg/m³
Oct 14, 10:00PM
Model values are for the nearest forecast grid cell to Vernon;
FireSmoke, FireWork and HRRR are independent and often disagree — treat the highest available value
as the cautious planning number.
Observations and NowCast are total PM2.5 — wildfire smoke plus every other source — as regulatory monitors measure it, and FireWork models that same total. FireSmoke and HRRR-Smoke estimate the wildfire contribution only, so they read lower than the monitors whenever other sources matter. The optional map plume surfaces are likewise fires-only.
Sky vs. ground
Little smoke at the surface or overhead.
Sky right now
Clear sky
● At the ground
· ● Overhead (if mixed down)
Overhead smoke dims the sun but is not what you breathe. The dashed line shows the surface level if the whole column mixed through the boundary layer — a worst case, not a forecast · Data: NOAA HRRR-Smoke; cloud cover is from the model, not observed
Nearby fires
150 km radius
Fire snapshot updated 2026-10-15 03:20 UTC
Within 150 km, agencies report 2 Being held · 15 Under control.
Out of control0 fires
No out of control fires are reported within 150 km.
Being held2 fires
Ainslie Creek
129 km away · 69705 ha · discovered 2026-07-04 · reported 2026-09-17 · BCWS
Fire number V10755Coastal Fire CentreAinslie CreekCause: PersonResponse: Full
Proximity and wind direction do not prove that a fire caused smoke at this location. Sources: BC Wildfire Service in British Columbia; Natural Resources Canada CWFIS elsewhere.
Forecast track record here
29-day record · 2 nearby monitors
Model
Typical error
Tendency
FireWork
3.3 µg/m³
reads low 1.4
FireSmoke
7.2 µg/m³
reads low 4.6
Mean absolute error and average tendency in µg/m³, from forecasts verified 0–6 hours ahead at monitors within 50 km. A short-range record, not a measure of how far ahead a model stays reliable. FireSmoke and HRRR model wildfire smoke only, so they read below the monitors whenever other sources of PM2.5 matter.